Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 13.444258 15.390312 17.490140 19.920674 22.652753 25.625073 29.099714
2025-02-16 10.470154 13.079961 16.118244 19.901906 24.471660 29.795802 36.450814
2025-02-23 8.930015 11.803312 15.315192 19.895892 25.682247 32.715115 41.872951
2025-03-02 7.864364 10.929671 14.841047 20.154145 27.132480 35.928703 47.789978
2025-03-09 6.970376 10.125743 14.307097 20.191284 28.184445 38.579496 53.020211
2025-03-16 6.160829 9.327090 13.672702 19.990618 28.841714 40.684100 57.584169
2025-03-23 5.609368 8.817683 13.363332 20.168970 29.970129 43.419224 63.074816
2025-03-30 5.274248 8.579692 13.400005 20.810421 31.749827 47.102799 70.020164
2025-04-06 4.763636 8.020947 12.910515 20.628527 32.305101 49.061175 74.598027
2025-04-13 4.115090 7.180303 11.920603 19.607986 31.532442 49.034029 76.271817
2025-04-20 3.882065 6.981099 11.895557 20.048099 32.960495 52.269969 82.846817
2025-04-27 3.662211 6.780588 11.846810 20.435819 34.312971 55.437582 89.442616
2025-05-04 3.343489 6.388967 11.467551 20.280821 34.826379 57.391570 94.353676
2025-05-11 3.033505 5.982956 11.031261 19.997565 35.110292 58.996554 98.797082
2025-05-18 2.820347 5.728446 10.827481 20.079482 35.977511 61.536516 104.792024
2025-05-25 2.651252 5.538457 10.718545 20.310095 37.094716 64.515035 111.602964
2025-06-01 2.470091 5.307417 10.516241 20.357467 37.892781 66.996293 117.697896
2025-06-08 2.270343 5.020277 10.187755 20.152003 38.232331 68.720626 122.603634
2025-06-15 2.140121 4.859026 10.078662 20.332770 39.249542 71.610943 129.552680
2025-06-22 2.077689 4.830614 10.217804 20.978540 41.124279 76.030902 139.252372
2025-06-29 1.921731 4.590828 9.929189 20.795444 41.480009 77.839582 144.548995
2025-07-06 1.687530 4.158958 9.227021 19.767379 40.214279 76.746036 144.755827
2025-07-13 1.626397 4.102877 9.276827 20.210737 41.719781 80.613621 153.801872